a full fiscal cliff, a bunny slope or something in the middle, a fiscal slide. and i think that's where we're headed. we believe it will be in the neighborhood of 1.5% of gdp in fiscal adjustment and i think that's obviously better than the full lack of 4.5. and it's better than -- worse than something that wouldn't make too much difference. 1.5 will make an important difference still. >> and what's in that 1.5% in terms of tax hikes and spending cuts? >> probably are going to be a brunch of different things in it, but the main thing that will be close to 1% of u.s. gdp is the expiring of the payroll tax cut. both sides of the aisle agree on that. it will fall disproceportiona a on middle income households. >> and instead of the bush tax cuts for example which are a decade old, these were meant as very specific kind of post financial crisis stimulus. so they appear to be going away. but as you say, there will be a mathematical hit to gdp because of that. is the economy strong enough to handle that hit? >> well, we reckon the economy is probably growing somewhere